The City Stadium · Referee A. Grieve · Analysis updated 21:58 UTC
Queen's Park vs Queen of the South Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Queen's Park and 1.68 for Queen of the South, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Queen's Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Queen's Park win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Queen's Park home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queen of the South away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Queen's Park
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Inverness CT · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Arbroath · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 0-2 (L)
Queen of the South
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alloa Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 3-1 Queen of the South (League Cup)
- 2023-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 1-2 Queen of the South (League Cup)
- 2021-07-10T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 1-0 Queen of the South (League Cup)
- 2021-01-08T19:45:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-3 Queen of the South (FA Cup)
- 2020-11-10T19:45:00.000Z · Queen's Park 1-3 Queen of the South (League Cup)
- 2019-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 2-1 Queen of the South (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Queen's Park win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.