Queen's University vs Newry City AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Queen's University and 1.28 for Newry City AFC, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Queen's University the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Queen's University win

64.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.53 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Queen's University home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newry City AFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Queen's University to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Queen's University and 1.28 for Newry City AFC, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Queen's University win65%

Draw18%

Newry City AFC win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.1%
3–17.7%
1–17.2%
2–07.1%
3–06.0%

Recent form

Queen's University

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ballinamallard United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballinamallard United · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 0-1 (L)

Newry City AFC

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Annagh United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	6	3	4	2	21
5	Queen's University	13	6	2	5	8	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	-5	17
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	-11	10
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Queen's University win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.