· Analysis updated 07:01 UTC
Queens Park Rangers U21 vs Bolton Wanderers Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Queens Park Rangers U21 and 2.13 for Bolton Wanderers Res., a combined total of 4.79. That distribution gives Queens Park Rangers U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Queens Park Rangers U21 win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Queens Park Rangers U21 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolton Wanderers Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Queens Park Rangers U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 18% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Queens Park Rangers U21 and 2.13 for Bolton Wanderers Res., a combined 4.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.7%
- 2–16.3%
- 3–25.9%
- 3–15.5%
- 1–25.0%
Recent form
Queens Park Rangers U21
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry City U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea City U21 · 2-4 (L)
Bolton Wanderers Res.
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall U21 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry City U21 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Queens Park Rangers U21 win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.