· Analysis updated 00:45 UTC
Queens Park Rangers U21 vs Cardiff City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Queens Park Rangers U21 and 1.97 for Cardiff City U21, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Cardiff City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cardiff City U21 win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Queens Park Rangers U21 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cardiff City U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.25 (model 33.6% vs market 28.6%, edge +5.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.25 | 28.6% | 33.6% | 2.98 | +5.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.91 | 49.3% | 50.9% | 1.96 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 28.6% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.80 | 49.2% | 49.1% | 2.04 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.4% | 78.2% | 1.28 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.2% | 21.8% | 4.59 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.4% | 70.9% | 1.41 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.30 | 71.4% | 66.4% | 1.51 | -5.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Queens Park Rangers U21
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry City U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea City U21 · 2-4 (L)
Cardiff City U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough United U21 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 1-1 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2026-02-17T13:30:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 1-0 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2025-12-12T19:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 1-3 Cardiff City U21 (Premier League Cup)
- 2025-11-04T19:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 3-2 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2025-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 2-2 Cardiff City U21 (Premier League Cup)
- 2025-04-22T13:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 2-1 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2024-12-16T14:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 1-2 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2024-01-30T14:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 2-0 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2023-10-30T13:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 3-2 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2023-01-31T19:00:00.000Z · Queens Park Rangers U21 3-1 Cardiff City U21 (Professional Development League)
Professional Development League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Coventry City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sheffield United U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Swansea City U21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Peterborough United U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester United U21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cardiff City U21 win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.