· Analysis updated 11:55 UTC
Quepos Cambute vs Municipal Grecia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Quepos Cambute and 0.90 for Municipal Grecia, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Quepos Cambute the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Quepos Cambute win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Quepos Cambute home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Municipal Grecia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Quepos Cambute
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ADR Jicaral · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Cofutpa · 3-0 (W)
Municipal Grecia
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quepos Cambute · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs ADR Jicaral · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T01:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Cofutpa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Sarchí · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 1-0 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 0-2 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2026-04-07T01:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 2-3 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2026-02-21T20:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 3-2 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-11-09T17:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 1-1 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-09-21T02:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 1-3 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-03-20T02:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 2-3 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 5-2 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2024-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 0-0 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2024-08-28T20:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 1-2 Municipal Grecia (Liga de Ascenso)
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quepos Cambute win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.