· Analysis updated 09:49 UTC
Quepos Cambute vs Santa Cruz FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Quepos Cambute and 0.79 for Santa Cruz FC, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Quepos Cambute the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Quepos Cambute win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Quepos Cambute home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quepos Cambute to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Quepos Cambute and 0.79 for Santa Cruz FC, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.9%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Quepos Cambute
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ADR Jicaral · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Cofutpa · 3-0 (W)
Santa Cruz FC
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Quepos Cambute · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Sarchí · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aserri FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs ADR Jicaral · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 4-0 Santa Cruz FC (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2026-03-22T19:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 2-1 Santa Cruz FC (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2026-02-08T19:15:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 2-1 Santa Cruz FC (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-10-26T17:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 2-0 Santa Cruz FC (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · Quepos Cambute 1-0 Santa Cruz FC (Liga de Ascenso)
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quepos Cambute win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.