· Analysis updated 02:09 UTC
Quick Boys vs Jong AZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Quick Boys and 2.80 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Jong AZ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jong AZ win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 2.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Quick Boys home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jong AZ away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jong AZ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 31% / 18% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Quick Boys and 2.80 for Jong AZ, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.4%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–25.8%
- 1–35.4%
- 3–24.7%
Recent form
Quick Boys
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Koninklijke HFC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 2-0 (W)
Jong AZ
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs VVV Venlo · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Den Bosch · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jong AZ win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.