· Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Quilmes 2 vs Colón Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Quilmes 2 and 0.71 for Colón Res., a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Quilmes 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Quilmes 2 win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colón Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quilmes 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 30% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Quilmes 2 and 0.71 for Colón Res., a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.7%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–110.1%
Recent form
Quilmes 2
Colón Res.
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quilmes 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quilmes 2 win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.