· Analysis updated 13:03 UTC
Quilmes 2 vs Independiente Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Quilmes 2 and 1.31 for Independiente Res., a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Independiente Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente Res. win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 22% / 29% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Quilmes 2 and 1.31 for Independiente Res., a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–012.5%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–09.7%
Recent form
Quilmes 2
Independiente Res.
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente Res. win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.