· Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Quilmes 2 vs San Martín San Juan Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Quilmes 2 and 0.84 for San Martín San Juan Res., a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Quilmes 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Quilmes 2 win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín San Juan Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quilmes 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Quilmes 2 and 0.84 for San Martín San Juan Res., a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
Quilmes 2
San Martín San Juan Res.
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quilmes 2 win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.