· Analysis updated 08:36 UTC
Quintanar del Rey vs Villarrubia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Quintanar del Rey and 1.39 for Villarrubia, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Villarrubia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Quintanar del Rey home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarrubia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarrubia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Quintanar del Rey and 1.39 for Villarrubia, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Quintanar del Rey
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Villa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 0-2 (L)
Villarrubia
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrijos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.