· Analysis updated 18:05 UTC
Quorn vs Barwell Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Quorn and 1.49 for Barwell, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Quorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Quorn win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Quorn home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Barwell away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Quorn and 1.49 for Barwell, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Quorn
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leamington · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shepshed Dynamo · 2-1 (W)
Barwell
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quorn win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.