· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Quorn vs Leamington Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Quorn and 1.56 for Leamington, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Quorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Quorn win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Quorn home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leamington away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Quorn and 1.56 for Leamington, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Quorn
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leamington · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shepshed Dynamo · 2-1 (W)
Leamington
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gainsborough Trinity · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Stortford · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quorn win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.