· Analysis updated 13:03 UTC
Quorn vs Stockton Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Quorn and 1.65 for Stockton Town, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Quorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Quorn win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Quorn home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stockton Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Quorn and 1.65 for Stockton Town, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Quorn
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hyde United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Workington · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
Stockton Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quorn win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.