· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
RAAL La Louvière vs Samsunspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.43 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives RAAL La Louvière the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RAAL La Louvière home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Samsunspor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RAAL La Louvière to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.43 for Samsunspor, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
RAAL La Louvière
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Kortrijk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KV Mechelen · 2-2 (D)
Samsunspor
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T12:30:00.000Z · RAAL La Louvière 0-0 Samsunspor (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.