Campo Bom Jesus · Referee Pedro Vieira · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Rabo Peixe vs Olhanense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rabo Peixe and 0.50 for Olhanense, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Rabo Peixe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rabo Peixe win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olhanense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rabo Peixe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 25% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Rabo Peixe and 0.50 for Olhanense, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 31%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.8%
- 2–015.6%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Rabo Peixe
Olhanense
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveira Hospital · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portel · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lagos · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-04-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Imortal Albufeira · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-04-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Praiense · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lajense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rabo Peixe win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.