Rača vs Bernolákovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Rača and 1.05 for Bernolákovo, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Rača the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rača win

71.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.68 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rača home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rača to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.68 goals for Rača and 1.05 for Bernolákovo, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rača win72%

Draw16%

Bernolákovo win13%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.1%
2–08.6%
3–18.1%
3–07.7%
1–16.8%

Recent form

Rača

2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Dunajská Lužná · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Komárno II · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nitra · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs DAC II · 2-2 (D)

Bernolákovo

2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 0-3 (L)
2025-07-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Malinovo · 1-1 (D)
2024-07-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nová Dedinka · 0-2 (L)
2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 1-7 (L)
2023-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubia Veľký Biel · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · Rača 3-0 Bernolákovo (Cup)
2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Rača 7-1 Bernolákovo (Cup)
2022-06-11T15:30:00.000Z · Rača 2-0 Bernolákovo (3. liga - Bratislava)
2021-11-06T12:30:00.000Z · Rača 1-0 Bernolákovo (3. liga - Bratislava)
2020-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · Rača 1-2 Bernolákovo (3. liga - Bratislava)

3. liga - Bratislava table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rača	30	24	3	3	62	75
2	Slovan Ivanka	30	23	3	4	40	72
3	Inter Bratislava	30	21	6	3	61	69
4	Rusovce	30	19	3	8	30	60
5	Rovinka	30	17	7	6	31	58
6	Vrakuňa	30	16	4	10	12	52
7	Malacky	30	16	4	10	9	52
8	MŠK Senec	30	11	4	15	-13	37
9	Tomášov	30	9	8	13	-3	35
10	Pezinok	30	8	8	14	-12	32
11	Dunajská Lužná	30	9	5	16	-21	32
12	Bernolákovo	30	7	8	15	-25	29
13	Nová Dedinka	30	6	3	21	-44	21
14	Slovan Most	30	6	2	22	-39	20
15	Kalinkovo	30	5	4	21	-37	19
16	Lokomotíva DNV	30	4	6	20	-51	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rača win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.