Rače vs Videm Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Rače and 1.38 for Videm, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Rače the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rače home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Videm away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rače to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Rače and 1.38 for Videm, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rače win42%

Draw25%

Videm win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–18.9%
1–08.3%
1–27.9%
0–17.4%

Recent form

Rače

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Limbuš Pekre · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ljutomer · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Podvinci · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Čarda Martjanci · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Videm · 1-2 (L)

Videm

2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Šampion Celje · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hajdina · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Odranci · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rače · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · Rače 1-2 Videm (3. SNL - East)
2026-04-11T14:30:00.000Z · Rače 1-1 Videm (3. SNL - East)
2025-09-28T08:30:00.000Z · Rače 0-3 Videm (3. SNL - East)

3. SNL - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Odranci	9	7	2	0	16	23
2	Fužinar	9	6	1	2	11	19
3	Šmartno	9	5	1	3	4	16
4	NK Ormoz	9	5	1	3	4	16
5	Hajdina	10	4	4	2	3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	9	4	3	2	7	15
7	Videm	10	4	2	4	-2	14
8	Podvinci	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Korotan Prevalje	9	2	5	2	1	11
10	Rače	9	2	4	3	0	10
11	Dobrovce	9	3	0	6	-11	9
12	Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	-4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	9	1	2	6	-15	5
14	Šampion Celje	9	1	1	7	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.