Estadio Juan Domingo Perón · Referee Y. Perez · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Racing Club vs Belgrano Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Racing Club and 0.90 for Belgrano Cordoba, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Racing Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing Club home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belgrano Cordoba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 60.4% vs market 52.0%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 52.0% | 60.4% | 1.66 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 69.4% | 1.44 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.0% | 60.1% | 1.66 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.9% | 39.9% | 2.51 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.6% | 30.6% | 3.27 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.8% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 48.0% | 39.6% | 2.53 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Racing Club
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-2 (L)
Belgrano Cordoba
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T22:15:00.000Z · Racing Club 1-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Copa Argentina)
- 2026-03-22T01:15:00.000Z · Racing Club 2-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-07-20T22:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 1-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-01-30T22:15:00.000Z · Racing Club 4-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-05-12T20:45:00.000Z · Racing Club 4-4 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-04-17T22:30:00.000Z · Racing Club 4-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-11-28T00:30:00.000Z · Racing Club 4-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-01-28T22:15:00.000Z · Racing Club 0-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2019-03-16T23:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 1-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-03-31T00:15:00.000Z · Racing Club 2-2 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.