Estadio Presidente Perón · Referee L. Rey Hilfer · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Racing Club and 0.77 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Racing Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing Club win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing Club home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Junin away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 59.8% vs market 52.7%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.7% | 59.8% | 1.67 | +7.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.2% | 48.6% | 2.06 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.80 | 51.2% | 51.4% | 1.95 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 72.3% | 1.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 20.9% | 20.9% | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.9% | 27.7% | 3.61 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.6% | 79.1% | 1.26 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.3% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Racing Club
- 2026-10-11T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 1-2 (L)
Sarmiento Junin
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · Racing Club 3-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-11T01:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 0-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-24T20:15:00.000Z · Racing Club 0-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-05T23:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 0-1 Sarmiento Junin (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-20T00:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 1-1 Sarmiento Junin (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-03-12T20:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 1-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-07-03T21:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 1-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-04-02T17:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 4-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-07-31T21:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 1-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2017-04-15T23:00:00.000Z · Racing Club 2-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing Club win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.