· Analysis updated 00:01 UTC
Racing d'Abidjan vs Mouna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Racing d'Abidjan and 1.41 for Mouna, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Mouna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mouna win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing d'Abidjan home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mouna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mouna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Racing d'Abidjan and 1.41 for Mouna, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Racing d'Abidjan
- 2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Stella · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade d'Abidjan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Korhogo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Agboville · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SOL · 1-2 (L)
Mouna
- 2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Korhogo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs San-Pédro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Agboville · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zoman · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFAD · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Agboville | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Stade d'Abidjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Yamoussoukro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | SOA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | SOL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Zoman | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Mouna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | San-Pédro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | ISCA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Adiake | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 | US Tchologo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bouaké | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Korhogo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | AFAD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Stella | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | ASEC Mimosas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mouna win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.