· Analysis updated 06:39 UTC
Racing de Veracruz vs Deportivo Zap Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Racing de Veracruz and 1.10 for Deportivo Zap, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Racing de Veracruz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing de Veracruz win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing de Veracruz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Zap away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing de Veracruz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Racing de Veracruz and 1.10 for Deportivo Zap, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Racing de Veracruz
- 2026-09-29T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Jaguares de Chiapas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañeses · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapulineros · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 4-0 (W)
Deportivo Zap
- 2026-05-03T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Durango · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing de Veracruz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-22T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing de Veracruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Tigres de Alica · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing de Veracruz win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.