· Analysis updated 04:59 UTC
Racing de Veracruz vs Irapuato Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Racing de Veracruz and 1.57 for Irapuato, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Irapuato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing de Veracruz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Irapuato away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Irapuato to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Racing de Veracruz and 1.57 for Irapuato, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Racing de Veracruz
- 2026-09-29T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Jaguares de Chiapas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañeses · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapulineros · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 4-0 (W)
Irapuato
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Lobos ULMX · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres de Alica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordobés · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Cabos United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.