Stade Achille Hammerel · Analysis updated 10:04 UTC
Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Swift Hesperange Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Racing FC Union Luxembourg and 0.85 for Swift Hesperange, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Racing FC Union Luxembourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win
74.1% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swift Hesperange away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing FC Union Luxembourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Racing FC Union Luxembourg and 0.85 for Swift Hesperange, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +2.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.75 | 24.2% | 25.9% | 3.86 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.70 | 54.7% | 56.0% | 1.79 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 9.20 | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.71 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.75 | 33.7% | 34.1% | 2.93 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.22 | 73.8% | 74.1% | 1.35 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.01 | 90.0% | 89.7% | 1.11 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.40 | 66.3% | 65.9% | 1.52 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.50 | 16.4% | 15.6% | 6.41 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.05 | 45.3% | 44.0% | 2.27 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.06 | 85.8% | 84.4% | 1.18 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 49.3% | 47.3% | 2.11 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hosingen · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Progres Niederkorn · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Jeunesse Esch · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 3-1 (W)
Swift Hesperange
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Hostert · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-14T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Bettembourg · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing FC Union Luxembourg win, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.