Stade Achille Hammerel · Analysis updated 00:50 UTC
Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Wiltz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.45 expected goals for Racing FC Union Luxembourg and 1.35 for Wiltz, a combined total of 4.80. That distribution gives Racing FC Union Luxembourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win
76.7% probability
Expected goals
3.45 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiltz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing FC Union Luxembourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 12% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.45 goals for Racing FC Union Luxembourg and 1.35 for Wiltz, a combined 4.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.6%
- 2–16.6%
- 4–16.6%
- 3–05.6%
- 3–25.1%
Recent form
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UNA Strassen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hosingen · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Progres Niederkorn · 0-0 (D)
Wiltz
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandweiler · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Progres Niederkorn · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 30 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 22 |
| 5 | Atert Bissen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | US Hostert | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 8 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -39 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing FC Union Luxembourg win, at 76.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.