Estadio Municipal da Malata · Referee F. Roman · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Racing Ferrol and 0.95 for Pontevedra, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Racing Ferrol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing Ferrol home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pontevedra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 57.1% vs market 52.2%, edge +4.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.2% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +4.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.3% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.5% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.4% | 29.2% | 3.42 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 42.1% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.4% | 70.9% | 1.41 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.4% | 70.8% | 1.41 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -4.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Racing Ferrol
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Barakaldo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Extremadura 1924 · 0-1 (L)
Pontevedra
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mérida AD · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Ponferradina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T14:15:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 0-0 Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2026-01-03T15:30:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 1-2 Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 5-1 Pontevedra (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 5-1 Pontevedra (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-02-19T16:00:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 2-0 Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-12-04T16:00:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 2-0 Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 3-1 Pontevedra (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-01-17T16:00:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 1-0 Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2020-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 2-3 Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2020-01-19T16:00:00.000Z · Racing Ferrol 0-0 Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.