Racing Louisville W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Racing Louisville W and 1.78 for San Diego Wave W, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives San Diego Wave W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

San Diego Wave W win

47.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Racing Louisville W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Diego Wave W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Diego Wave W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Racing Louisville W and 1.78 for San Diego Wave W, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Louisville W win30%

Draw23%

San Diego Wave W win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.3%
0–17.6%
2–17.2%
0–26.8%

Recent form

Racing Louisville W

2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego Wave W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego Wave W · 2-3 (L)

San Diego Wave W

2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	16	7	5	13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	28	11	3	14	-6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Diego Wave W win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.