Estadio Osvaldo Roberto · Referee H. Heras · Analysis updated 19:57 UTC
Racing Montevideo vs Albion FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Racing Montevideo and 0.82 for Albion FC, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Racing Montevideo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing Montevideo win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing Montevideo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Albion FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Montevideo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Racing Montevideo and 0.82 for Albion FC, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–09.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 60.4% vs market 54.7%, edge +5.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 60.4% | 1.66 | +5.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 70.1% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 24.5% | 24.7% | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 54.1% | 54.2% | 1.85 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.9% | 45.8% | 2.18 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.8% | 75.3% | 1.33 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 39.6% | 2.53 | -5.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Racing Montevideo
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Nacional · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maldonado · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 0-1 (L)
Albion FC
- 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maldonado · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Largo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensor Sporting · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing Montevideo win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.