Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Racing Montevideo and 1.13 for Club Nacional, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Racing Montevideo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Racing Montevideo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Nacional away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Montevideo win41%

Draw27%

Club Nacional win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.4%
0–19.7%
0–08.6%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Racing Montevideo

2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubio · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Nacional · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maldonado · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 0-1 (L)

Club Nacional

2026-10-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maldonado · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rentistas · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Central Espanol · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Largo · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 2-0 Club Nacional (Primera División)
2026-02-14T23:30:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 1-1 Club Nacional (Primera División)
2025-09-07T21:00:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 0-3 Club Nacional (Primera División - Clausura)
2025-06-14T20:30:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 1-2 Club Nacional (Primera División - Apertura)
2025-03-16T22:30:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 0-1 Club Nacional (Primera División - Apertura)
2024-11-08T23:30:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 0-2 Club Nacional (Primera División - Clausura)
2024-05-03T23:00:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 2-4 Club Nacional (Primera División - Apertura)
2023-10-05T23:00:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 1-2 Club Nacional (Primera División - Clausura)
2023-07-09T21:00:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 2-2 Club Nacional (Primera División - Apertura)
2023-02-26T23:00:00.000Z · Racing Montevideo 1-3 Club Nacional (Primera División - Apertura)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	34	19	8	7	24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	34	18	8	8	22	62
3	Club Nacional	33	18	4	11	11	58
4	Atletico Torque	33	17	6	10	15	57
5	Racing Montevideo	34	15	12	7	12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	33	14	11	8	13	53
7	Wanderers	34	14	8	12	-2	50
8	Albion FC	34	13	7	14	3	46
9	Juventud	34	10	11	13	-4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	10	8	16	-14	38
11	Boston River	33	10	7	16	-10	37
12	Cerro	33	10	7	16	-21	37
13	Defensor Sporting	34	8	12	14	-10	36
14	Progreso	34	10	5	19	-16	35
15	Cerro Largo	33	8	10	15	-8	34
16	Danubio	34	6	14	14	-15	32
1	Penarol	71	43	14	14	56	143
2	Club Nacional	70	42	14	14	54	137
3	Deportivo Maldonado	34	18	8	8	22	62
4	Liverpool Montevideo	70	32	22	16	27	118
5	Racing Montevideo	71	29	23	19	13	110
6	Atletico Torque	70	30	16	24	18	106
7	Juventud	71	28	18	25	2	102
8	Defensor Sporting	71	26	19	26	-6	97
9	Albion FC	34	13	7	14	3	46
10	Boston River	70	24	20	26	1	92
11	Cerro Largo	70	20	23	27	-8	83
12	Cerro	70	22	18	30	-30	83
13	Wanderers	71	20	21	30	-24	81
14	Central Espanol	34	10	8	16	-14	38
15	Danubio	71	16	27	28	-15	75
16	Progreso	71	20	14	37	-38	74
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	9	16
1	Wanderers	7	4	3	0	8	15
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	2	11
2	Club Nacional	7	4	1	2	0	13
3	Racing Montevideo	7	2	4	1	1	10
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	6	12
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	0	9
4	Atletico Torque	7	4	0	3	0	12
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	0	9
5	Juventud	7	2	2	3	-3	8
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	-4	9
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	-2	6
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	-3	6
7	Progreso	7	2	0	5	-5	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	-5	5
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	-4	4
1	Racing Montevideo	15	9	4	2	9	31
2	Deportivo Maldonado	15	9	2	4	8	29
3	Albion FC	15	8	4	3	10	28
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	7	27
5	Central Espanol	15	7	3	5	1	24
6	Atletico Torque	15	6	5	4	6	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	5	22
8	Defensor Sporting	15	5	6	4	2	21
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	5	5	5	2	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	-5	20
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	-4	18
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	-3	17
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	-6	17
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	-5	15
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	-11	10
16	Cerro	15	2	4	9	-16	10
1	Liverpool Montevideo	11	7	3	1	11	24
2	Club Nacional	11	7	2	2	6	23
3	Atletico Torque	11	7	1	3	9	22
4	Deportivo Maldonado	12	6	3	3	8	21
5	Penarol	12	6	4	2	8	21
6	Progreso	12	6	1	5	0	19
7	Juventud	12	4	6	2	4	18
8	Cerro	11	5	3	3	-1	18
9	Racing Montevideo	12	4	4	4	2	16
10	Boston River	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Wanderers	12	4	3	5	-5	15
12	Albion FC	12	4	0	8	-5	12
13	Danubio	12	2	4	6	-7	10
14	Defensor Sporting	12	2	3	7	-9	9
15	Cerro Largo	11	0	6	5	-7	6
16	Central Espanol	12	1	2	9	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.