Racing Montevideo vs Penarol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Racing Montevideo and 1.20 for Penarol, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Penarol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Penarol win

45.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.81 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Racing Montevideo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Penarol away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penarol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 25% / 30% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Racing Montevideo and 1.20 for Penarol, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Montevideo win25%

Draw30%

Penarol win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–116.1%
0–013.4%
1–113.0%
1–010.8%
0–29.7%

Recent form

Racing Montevideo

2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubio · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Nacional · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maldonado · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 0-1 (L)

Penarol

2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Danubio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Albion FC · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	32	19	7	6	25	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	17	8	7	22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	17	6	9	16	57
4	Club Nacional	32	17	4	11	10	55
5	Racing Montevideo	32	14	11	7	9	53
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	13	11	8	12	50
7	Wanderers	32	14	8	10	2	50
8	Albion FC	32	11	7	14	0	40
9	Juventud	32	10	10	12	-2	40
10	Central Espanol	32	10	8	14	-11	38
11	Cerro	32	10	6	16	-21	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	8	11	13	-9	35
13	Boston River	32	9	7	16	-11	34
14	Cerro Largo	32	8	9	15	-8	33
15	Danubio	32	5	14	13	-15	29
16	Progreso	32	8	5	19	-19	29
1	Penarol	69	43	13	13	57	142
2	Club Nacional	69	41	14	14	53	134
3	Deportivo Maldonado	32	17	8	7	22	59
4	Liverpool Montevideo	69	31	22	16	26	115
5	Atletico Torque	69	30	16	23	19	106
6	Racing Montevideo	69	28	22	19	10	106
7	Juventud	69	28	17	24	4	101
8	Defensor Sporting	69	26	18	25	-5	96
9	Boston River	69	23	20	26	0	89
10	Albion FC	32	11	7	14	0	40
11	Cerro Largo	69	20	22	27	-8	82
12	Central Espanol	32	10	8	14	-11	38
13	Cerro	69	22	17	30	-30	82
14	Wanderers	69	20	21	28	-20	81
15	Danubio	69	15	27	27	-15	72
16	Progreso	69	18	14	37	-41	68
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	9	16
1	Wanderers	7	4	3	0	8	15
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	2	11
2	Club Nacional	7	4	1	2	0	13
3	Racing Montevideo	7	2	4	1	1	10
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	6	12
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	0	9
4	Atletico Torque	7	4	0	3	0	12
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	0	9
5	Juventud	7	2	2	3	-3	8
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	-4	9
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	-2	6
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	-3	6
7	Progreso	7	2	0	5	-5	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	-5	5
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	-4	4
1	Racing Montevideo	15	9	4	2	9	31
2	Deportivo Maldonado	15	9	2	4	8	29
3	Albion FC	15	8	4	3	10	28
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	7	27
5	Central Espanol	15	7	3	5	1	24
6	Atletico Torque	15	6	5	4	6	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	5	22
8	Defensor Sporting	15	5	6	4	2	21
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	5	5	5	2	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	-5	20
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	-4	18
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	-3	17
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	-6	17
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	-5	15
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	-11	10
16	Cerro	15	2	4	9	-16	10
1	Atletico Torque	10	7	1	2	10	22
2	Liverpool Montevideo	10	6	3	1	10	21
3	Penarol	10	6	3	1	9	20
4	Club Nacional	10	6	2	2	5	20
5	Deportivo Maldonado	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Juventud	10	4	5	1	6	17
7	Cerro	10	5	2	3	-1	17
8	Wanderers	10	4	3	3	-1	15
9	Progreso	10	4	1	5	-3	13
10	Boston River	10	3	3	4	0	12
11	Racing Montevideo	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Defensor Sporting	10	2	2	6	-8	8
13	Danubio	10	1	4	5	-7	7
14	Albion FC	10	2	0	8	-8	6
15	Cerro Largo	10	0	5	5	-7	5
16	Central Espanol	10	1	2	7	-12	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Penarol win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.