Racing Santander II vs Eibar II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Racing Santander II and 1.45 for Eibar II, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Eibar II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Eibar II win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.63 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Racing Santander II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eibar II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eibar II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 16% / 27% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Racing Santander II and 1.45 for Eibar II, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Santander II win16%

Draw27%

Eibar II win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–118.2%
0–213.2%
0–012.6%
1–111.4%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Racing Santander II

2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Eibar II · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanera · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Amorebieta · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-1 (D)

Eibar II

2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ourense CF · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · Racing Santander II 1-5 Eibar II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2024-08-21T10:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander II 2-0 Eibar II (Friendlies Clubs)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Eibar II win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.