Stade Op der Kopp · Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Racing Troisvierges vs Lorentzweiler Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Racing Troisvierges and 2.64 for Lorentzweiler, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Lorentzweiler the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lorentzweiler win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 2.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing Troisvierges home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorentzweiler away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lorentzweiler to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 27% / 18% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Racing Troisvierges and 2.64 for Lorentzweiler, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–15.5%
Recent form
Racing Troisvierges
- 2024-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorentzweiler · 2-4 (L)
- 2023-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alisontia Steinsel · 1-7 (L)
- 2023-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Syra Mensdorf · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-12 (L)
- 2022-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brouch · 3-1 (W)
Lorentzweiler
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erpeldange · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Résidence Walferdange · 3-5 (L)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodange 91 · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tricolore Gasperich · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Rosport · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lorentzweiler win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.