Neuven Stadium · Analysis updated 12:44 UTC
Radcliffe vs Oxford City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Radcliffe and 1.55 for Oxford City, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Oxford City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oxford City win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radcliffe home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Oxford City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Radcliffe
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hebburn Town · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 0-1 (L)
Oxford City
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorchester Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Radcliffe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Telford United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chorley · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worksop Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Radcliffe 0-3 Oxford City (National League - North)
- 2026-02-03T19:45:00.000Z · Radcliffe 1-0 Oxford City (National League - North)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Radcliffe 5-1 Oxford City (National League - North)
- 2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Radcliffe 0-1 Oxford City (National League - North)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Radcliffe 1-3 Oxford City (National League - North)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oxford City win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.