· Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Råde vs Bjørkelangen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.18 expected goals for Råde and 1.65 for Bjørkelangen, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives Råde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Råde win
67.6% probability
Expected goals
3.18 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Råde home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bjørkelangen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Råde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 15% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.18 goals for Råde and 1.65 for Bjørkelangen, a combined 4.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.1%
- 2–16.7%
- 3–25.8%
- 4–15.6%
- 2–25.5%
Recent form
Råde
- 2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillehammer · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fram · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elverum · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 2-0 (W)
Bjørkelangen
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Drøbak / Frogn · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillehammer · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brumunddal · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · Råde 8-1 Bjørkelangen (3. Division - Girone 6)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · Råde 9-0 Bjørkelangen (3. Division - Girone 6)
3. Division - Girone 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 53 |
| 2 | Elverum | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 44 |
| 3 | Råde | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 38 |
| 5 | Drøbak / Frogn | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 35 |
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 35 |
| 7 | Sandefjord II | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Oppsal | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Raelingen | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -15 | 31 |
| 10 | Lyn II | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Fram | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | -63 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 22 | 1 | 0 | 21 | -71 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Råde win, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.