· Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Råde vs Follo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Råde and 1.33 for Follo, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Råde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Råde win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Råde home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Follo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Råde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Råde and 1.33 for Follo, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Råde
- 2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillehammer · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fram · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elverum · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 2-0 (W)
Follo
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stjørdals-Blink · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kjelsås · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eidsvold · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Levanger · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Råde win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.