Råde vs Lillehammer Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.57 expected goals for Råde and 2.91 for Lillehammer, a combined total of 5.49. That distribution gives Lillehammer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lillehammer win

46.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.57 – 2.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Råde home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lillehammer away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillehammer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 36% / 17% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.57 goals for Råde and 2.91 for Lillehammer, a combined 5.49 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Råde win36%

Draw17%

Lillehammer win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals79%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–25.8%
2–35.7%
3–25.0%
3–34.8%
1–24.5%

Recent form

Råde

2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillehammer · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fram · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elverum · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 2-0 (W)

Lillehammer

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lillehammer	22	17	2	3	51	53
2	Elverum	22	14	2	6	25	44
3	Råde	21	12	3	6	30	39
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	22	12	2	8	16	38
5	Drøbak / Frogn	22	10	5	7	19	35
6	Ørn Horten	22	10	5	7	9	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	10	3	9	8	33
8	Oppsal	22	10	3	9	4	33
9	Raelingen	22	9	4	9	-15	31
10	Lyn II	21	9	3	9	0	30
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	8	4	10	-3	28
12	Fram	22	6	5	11	-10	23
13	Brumunddal	22	3	3	16	-63	12
14	Bjørkelangen	22	1	0	21	-71	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lillehammer win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.