Råde vs Oppsal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Råde and 1.42 for Oppsal, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Råde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Råde win

66.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.83 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Råde home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oppsal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Råde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Råde and 1.42 for Oppsal, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Råde win67%

Draw16%

Oppsal win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.1%
3–17.6%
2–25.8%
1–15.7%
2–05.7%

Recent form

Råde

2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillehammer · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fram · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elverum · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 2-0 (W)

Oppsal

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillehammer · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brumunddal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ørn Horten · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fram · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lillehammer	22	17	2	3	51	53
2	Elverum	22	14	2	6	25	44
3	Råde	21	12	3	6	30	39
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	22	12	2	8	16	38
5	Drøbak / Frogn	22	10	5	7	19	35
6	Ørn Horten	22	10	5	7	9	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	10	3	9	8	33
8	Oppsal	22	10	3	9	4	33
9	Raelingen	22	9	4	9	-15	31
10	Lyn II	21	9	3	9	0	30
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	8	4	10	-3	28
12	Fram	22	6	5	11	-10	23
13	Brumunddal	22	3	3	16	-63	12
14	Bjørkelangen	22	1	0	21	-71	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Råde win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.