· Analysis updated 07:56 UTC
Radnicki 1923 vs Novi Pazar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Radnicki 1923 and 0.70 for Novi Pazar, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Radnicki 1923 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Radnicki 1923 win
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radnicki 1923 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novi Pazar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.8%
Recent form
Radnicki 1923
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vojvodina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 5-0 (W)
Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 0-1 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-23T15:30:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 0-0 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2025-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 1-1 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2025-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 2-3 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2025-02-27T17:30:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 2-0 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2024-12-04T13:00:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 0-2 Novi Pazar (Cup)
- 2024-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 0-2 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2024-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 3-1 Novi Pazar (Cup)
- 2023-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 0-4 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2023-07-30T16:55:00.000Z · Radnicki 1923 0-2 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Železničar Pančevo | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Cukaricki | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Radnik Surdulica | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Radnicki 1923 win, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.