Čika Dača Stadium · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Radnicki 1923 and 1.20 for Radnik Surdulica, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Radnicki 1923 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Radnicki 1923 win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radnicki 1923 home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Radnik Surdulica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Radnicki 1923 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Radnicki 1923 and 1.20 for Radnik Surdulica, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Radnicki 1923
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki NIS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IMT Novi Beograd · 2-1 (W)
Radnik Surdulica
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemun · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cukaricki · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Železničar Pančevo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 17 |
| 8 | Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Radnicki 1923 win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.