· Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Radnicki NIS vs Neftchi Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Radnicki NIS and 0.75 for Neftchi Baku, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Radnicki NIS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Radnicki NIS win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radnicki NIS home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Neftchi Baku away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Radnicki NIS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Radnicki NIS and 0.75 for Neftchi Baku, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Radnicki NIS
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 3-1 (W)
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Radnicki NIS win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.