· Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Radnicki NIS and 1.05 for Novi Pazar, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Novi Pazar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radnicki NIS home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Novi Pazar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novi Pazar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Radnicki NIS and 1.05 for Novi Pazar, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Radnicki NIS
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lucani · 0-1 (L)
Novi Pazar
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.