Gradski stadion Bijeljina · Referee S. Topalovic · Analysis updated 01:45 UTC
Radnik Bijeljina vs Zrinjski Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Radnik Bijeljina and 2.69 for Zrinjski, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Zrinjski the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zrinjski win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radnik Bijeljina home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zrinjski away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zrinjski to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 12% / 16% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Radnik Bijeljina and 2.69 for Zrinjski, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–37.9%
- 1–16.7%
Recent form
Radnik Bijeljina
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zrinjski · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 4-4 (D)
Zrinjski
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Velež · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | BSK Banja Luka | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Čelik | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zrinjski win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.