EFBET Stadion · Referee A. Stojanovic · Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Radnik Surdulica vs FK Crvena Zvezda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Radnik Surdulica and 1.80 for FK Crvena Zvezda, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives FK Crvena Zvezda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Crvena Zvezda win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radnik Surdulica home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Crvena Zvezda away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Radnik Surdulica
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemun · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cukaricki · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 1-5 (L)
FK Crvena Zvezda
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IMT Novi Beograd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-0 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2026-05-17T16:30:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-0 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-05T15:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-2 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-02T16:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-1 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2024-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-2 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2023-11-04T17:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-3 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2022-11-13T12:30:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-2 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2022-07-29T19:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-6 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2021-12-13T17:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-1 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
- 2021-10-27T15:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 2-1 FK Crvena Zvezda (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Crvena Zvezda win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.