EFBET Stadion · Referee D. Nikolic · Analysis updated 07:33 UTC
Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lucani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Radnik Surdulica and 0.96 for Mladost Lucani, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Radnik Surdulica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Radnik Surdulica win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radnik Surdulica home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mladost Lucani away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Radnik Surdulica
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemun · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cukaricki · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 1-5 (L)
Mladost Lucani
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs IMT Novi Beograd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-1 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2025-12-08T14:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-0 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2025-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-1 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2023-11-25T13:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-1 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2023-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-0 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2023-05-09T16:15:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-2 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2023-02-10T15:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 1-0 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2022-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 2-3 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2022-05-08T17:05:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 3-2 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
- 2021-12-19T12:00:00.000Z · Radnik Surdulica 0-2 Mladost Lucani (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Železničar Pančevo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 17 |
| 8 | Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Radnik Surdulica win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.