Stadion Radomiaka Radom · Referee Tomasz Kwiatkowski · Analysis updated 13:06 UTC
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.28 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Radomiak Radom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radomiak Radom home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Motor Lublin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Radomiak Radom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.28 for Motor Lublin, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Radomiak Radom
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce II · 1-0 (W)
Motor Lublin
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.