· Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.53 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Radomiak Radom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Radomiak Radom win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radomiak Radom home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Radomiak Radom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.53 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Radomiak Radom
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Motor Lublin · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 1-5 (L)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Chrobry Głogów · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Radomiak Radom win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.