· Analysis updated 20:26 UTC
Radomiak Radom vs Pogoń Siedlce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.45 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Radomiak Radom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Radomiak Radom home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Siedlce away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Radomiak Radom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.45 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Radomiak Radom
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce II · 1-0 (W)
Pogoń Siedlce
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.