· Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
Raelingen vs Drøbak / Frogn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Raelingen and 2.32 for Drøbak / Frogn, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Drøbak / Frogn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Drøbak / Frogn win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 2.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Raelingen home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drøbak / Frogn away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Drøbak / Frogn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 20% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Raelingen and 2.32 for Drøbak / Frogn, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.7%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.0%
Recent form
Raelingen
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Drøbak / Frogn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillehammer · 0-3 (L)
Drøbak / Frogn
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjørkelangen · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Raelingen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fram · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 53 |
| 2 | Elverum | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 44 |
| 3 | Råde | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 38 |
| 5 | Drøbak / Frogn | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 35 |
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 35 |
| 7 | Sandefjord II | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Oppsal | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Raelingen | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -15 | 31 |
| 10 | Lyn II | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Fram | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | -63 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 22 | 1 | 0 | 21 | -71 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Drøbak / Frogn win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.