Munshiganj Stadium · Analysis updated 02:25 UTC
Rahmatgonj MFS vs Bangladesh Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Rahmatgonj MFS and 1.23 for Bangladesh Police, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Bangladesh Police the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rahmatgonj MFS home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bangladesh Police away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bangladesh Police to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Rahmatgonj MFS and 1.23 for Bangladesh Police, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Rahmatgonj MFS
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangladesh Police · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh Police · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Brothers Union · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 0-3 (L)
Bangladesh Police
- 2026-10-10T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Fakirerpool · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs City Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Chattogram · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Rahmatgonj MFS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bashundhara Kings | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 41 |
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -31 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.