Munshiganj Stadium · Analysis updated 16:35 UTC
Rahmatgonj MFS vs Bashundhara Kings Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rahmatgonj MFS and 1.85 for Bashundhara Kings, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Bashundhara Kings the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rahmatgonj MFS home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bashundhara Kings away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Rahmatgonj MFS
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangladesh Police · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh Police · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Brothers Union · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 0-3 (L)
Bashundhara Kings
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Arambagh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Fakirerpool · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Abahani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh Police · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-17T09:30:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 1-1 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
- 2025-11-29T11:30:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 0-5 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
- 2025-04-26T09:30:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 0-0 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
- 2025-04-15T08:45:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 1-2 Bashundhara Kings (Federation Cup)
- 2024-12-14T11:30:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 1-4 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
- 2024-05-24T10:00:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 0-0 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
- 2024-04-16T09:00:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 0-2 Bashundhara Kings (Federation Cup)
- 2024-02-16T11:15:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 1-4 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
- 2023-04-28T09:45:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 0-4 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
- 2022-12-31T08:30:00.000Z · Rahmatgonj MFS 0-2 Bashundhara Kings (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bashundhara Kings | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 41 |
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -31 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.